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Allianz Mortgage Services NMLS346138/BRE01403147
Loan Advisor
Jonathan Caguioa
Loan Advisor
Allianz Mortgage Services NMLS346138/BRE01403147
NMLS#: 250609 / BRE 01137630
Phone: 949-241-2527
Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
Today's Mortgage
Rate Forecast
Today's Potential
Rate Volatility




(by Sigma Research)
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower so far today.  The MBS market improved by +4 bps yesterday. This caused rates or fees to move sideways for the day. The rates experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Lower

Jobs: It's Big Jobs Friday! Very interesting results and a significant divergence from market expectations. Here is the tale of the tape:


  • April Non-Farm Payroll additions (NFP) 266K vs. est. of 978K.
  • March NFP revised lower from 916K to 770K
  • February NFP revised upward from 468K to 536K
  • The rolling three-month average is now 524K


  • The headline Unemployment Rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1%; expectations were for a drop to 5.8%
  • The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped from 10.7% to 10.4%
  • Participation Rate increased from 61.5% to 61.7%


  • The Average Hourly rate increased by 21 cents to $30.17
  • MOM it increased by 0.7% vs. est. of 0.0%
  • YOY it increased by 0.3% vs. est. of -0.4%
  • Average weekly hours increased to 35.0 from 34.9

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

The jobs numbers were a big miss today, helping to push rates lower and spiking volatility. We expect rate markets to continue the volatility through today as markets digest the jobs data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Jonathan Caguioa

Jonathan has been a lender since 1992 and has helped hundreds of families achieve home ownership and home retention by providing mortgage planning and solutions to fit their financial needs and goals. FHA/203K * VA Loans * Conventional * Reverse Mortgage

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.